cyclical component meaning in English

循环分量

Then the paper investigated the regularity of different oil indices using time series statistical analysis method , which suggested that there are some regular components in it , including long - term secular trend , seasonal component and long - term cyclical component . the irregular component also plays an important part in it , mainly including the policy of opec , war , all kinds of international convention for the prevention of pollution from tankers and so on . and then a study of simulation and forecasting performance of arima time series model was conducted to crude oil indices , evidence shows that arima model performs better , especially for short - term forecasting
在此基础上，本文以时间序列分析作为基础研究手段，以德国海运费率指数公布的1980年1月至1999年12月的四类油运费率指数为研究对象，分析了四类油运费率指数的长期变化趋势、季节变化规律、长期周期循环变化规律和不规则变化规律，并应用arima时间序列模型对160000dwt以上的原油运费率指数进行了短期预测，取得了较好的预测效果。